On 4 December 2025, the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport has published the executive summary of a groundbreaking study – ‘Lange termijn exploitatiemodel van het spoornetwerk‘ – that redefines how Belgium plans the future of its rail system. This is the first feasibility study ever produced for an integrated long-term timetable covering the entire national network. 

The document is remarkable not only for its size and ambition, but also because it introduces an entirely new planning philosophy. Instead of designing a timetable that fits today’s infrastructure, the study starts from the opposite direction: it defines what the railway service of 2050 should look like, and then derives which infrastructure upgrades are needed to achieve it. 

This approach brings Belgium closer to the established planning cultures of Switzerland and Germany, where long-term rail strategies have guided network development for decades.

A mandate rooted in political ambition

Launched in 2023 under then-Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Mobility and the National Railway Company Georges Gilkinet (Ecolo) during the ‘Vivaldi’ Government, the study received a formal mandate in March 2025 through the policy note of the current Federal Minister for Mobility, Jean-Luc Crucke (Les Engagés) in the ‘Arizona’ Government. 

It fulfills longstanding demands from NMBS / SNCB, Infrabel, regional governments, economic actors and civil-society organisations, all of whom have been asking for a coherent long-term vision for the Belgian railway system. 

Since 2020, federal policy has pushed for ambitious targets – 30% more passengers, a doubling of rail freight volumes, stronger climate action and a meaningful modal shift. This study provides the first robust building block linking these political ambitions to practical planning.

Designing a nationwide timetable for 2050 and later

The innovative character of the study cannot be overstated. For the first time, a complete nationwide timetable has been modelled that integrates international passenger services, domestic trains and freight. 

The aim was not to maximise commercial speeds but to improve frequency, reliability and connectivity. This mirrors successful international models. Switzerland, for example, carries large numbers of passengers by offering at least two trains per hour on every line – often four on busy corridors – and by guaranteeing systematic, predictable transfers across the network. 

The proposed Belgian model adopts similar principles, adapted to national constraints and demand patterns.

Towards a hybrid service philosophy

The study explores contrasting approaches before converging on a hybrid scenario for 2050. 

On the one hand is the Swiss node-based system with precise clock-face timetables; on the other, the high-frequency model of the Netherlands that prioritises simplicity and repetition. 

Belgium’s current rail geography and service patterns make neither model viable on its own, but a combination of both proves powerful. High-frequency, metro-like operations are appropriate in and between major cities, while cadenced transfer nodes remain relevant on less intensively used routes. 

The study highlights that full cadencing becomes inefficient once frequencies approach 15-minute intervals, as nodes quickly become congested and require costly grade-separated junctions. Conversely, a simplified network structure reduces conflicts and increases robustness.

Generalised travel times: a new way of measuring connectivity

At the heart of the study lies a detailed analysis of ‘generalised travel times‘, a metric that incorporates actual travel time, waiting time and the number of transfers. The results are striking. 

Nearly every station in Belgium becomes better connected in the 2050 scenario. The main improvements stem not from speed increases but from higher frequencies and better coordination between lines. 

Some direct services disappear, which disadvantages particular routes, but these losses are outweighed by the overall gains across the entire network. Transfers become systematic, predictable and optimised, enabling a more resilient and more user-friendly system.

Infrastructure needs: a comprehensive, future-oriented package

The study identifies the infrastructure required to support the 2050 timetable. This includes large-scale flyovers to eliminate conflicting train movements, additional tracks on key segments, redesigned station layouts and substantial capacity enhancements for freight. 

Flyovers represent the largest single cost category, reflecting their importance for creating a conflict-free, robust network. Notably, around half of the total investment relates to freight capacity: achieving even a moderate increase in rail freight is impossible without significant infrastructure expansion, and the political ambition of doubling freight volumes by 2030 is described as unrealistic with current infrastructure.

Financial analysis: efficiency gains through systematisation

The study offers an extensive financial assessment. Operating costs rise substantially as the network becomes more intensive, yet the volume of train-kilometres rises even faster. 

This indicates increased efficiency: rolling stock is used more intensively, and the standardisation of services spreads activity throughout the day. As a result, operating costs per train-kilometre fall by 10–15%. Although fare revenue does not grow at the same pace as costs, the overall coverage ratio remains stable. Crucially, broader societal benefits such as emissions reduction, decreased congestion and health improvements are not included in the financial model but would significantly reinforce the case for investment.

Not a final word, but a beginning

The publication of this feasibility study is explicitly presented as a starting point, not a conclusion. Belgium currently lacks a systematic, iterative planning cycle for rail development. 

In contrast, countries like Switzerland use their Strategic Railway Development Programme (STEP) to update their national vision every five to ten years, while Germany’s Deutschlandtakt has become a central tool for aligning investments, operations and political decisions over several decades. 

The Belgian study advocates for a similar institutionalisation: a permanent, transparent planning process involving the Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport, NMBS / SNCB, Infrabel and regional partners, capable of refining the model and guiding implementation over time.

A roadmap for further research

Numerous follow-up studies are recommended. These include refined demand modelling, harmonised cost-benefit methodologies, detailed robustness testing of the proposed timetable, analyses of station capacity (many Belgian underpasses are too narrow compared with Swiss or Dutch standards), updated infrastructure cost models, and a dedicated study on rail access to Brussels Airport in Zaventem, where systematisation poses particular challenges.

A strategic milestone for Belgium’s mobility future

Above all, the study demonstrates that a future-proof railway system requires vision, structural planning and cooperation across institutions. For the first time, Belgium has a comprehensive, data-driven model that outlines what its rail network could be by 2050 and what it would take to get there. It exposes weaknesses in the current system, proposes clear directions for improvement, and sets the stage for political and technical dialogue.

The executive summary marks a decisive moment in Belgian mobility policy. 

Whether Belgium succeeds in turning this vision into reality will be determined by the decisions made in the coming years. What is now available is not merely a technical analysis, but a strategic milestone: a foundational step toward building a modern, sustainable and fully integrated railway network for the entire country by 2050 and beyond.