Trenitalia is accelerating towards 2030 with a major €2 billion investment programme aimed at strengthening its leadership in high-speed rail and transforming Italy’s passenger rail sector. Gianpiero Strisciuglio, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager of Trenitalia, outlined the strategy at the Forum Masseria Winter Edition, confirming the purchase of up to 74 new Frecciarossa 1000 high-speed trains and a comprehensive renewal of regional and long-distance rolling stock.

The expansion of the Frecciarossa fleet is the central pillar of the plan. The new trains, expected to be delivered progressively and fully operational around 2030, will significantly increase capacity on the busiest routes and support Trenitalia’s international expansion. 

The company aims to position high-speed rail as a structural alternative to medium-distance air travel while reinforcing the Frecciarossa brand as one of Europe’s flagship rail products.

Expansion of an existing programme

The €2 billion order represents an expansion of an existing procurement programme. 

In September, Trenitalia announced a contract for 36 Frecciarossa 1000 trains worth €1.3 billion, with options for additional units. Deliveries from the initial batch are already under way, with roughly ten trains per year expected until 2029. 

The new trains are being built by Hitachi Rail at facilities in Pistoia and Naples and are designed for speeds of up to 300 km/h, with multi-system compatibility allowing operation in countries including Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland.

New cross-border routes

International services are a key growth area. Trenitalia plans to launch new cross-border routes such as Munich–Milan and Munich–Rome, followed by Berlin–Milan, Munich–Naples and Berlin–Naples by 2028. 

These services are intended to capture demand currently served by short- and medium-haul aviation, particularly once infrastructure upgrades such as the Brenner Base Tunnel reduce journey times further.

Regional and Intercity fleets

Beyond high-speed rail, Trenitalia is undertaking a major renewal of its regional and Intercity fleets. 

By 2027, Italy’s regional fleet is expected to be the youngest in Europe, with an average train age of five to ten years, supported partly by funding from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR). More than 80% of regional trains—over 1,000 out of a fleet of 1,300—are already of the latest generation. Intercity services will also receive more than 30 new hybrid, electric and battery-powered trains, improving efficiency on partially electrified routes.

Connectivity is another strategic priority. Trenitalia has tested a proprietary 5G network on the Turin–Milan line, reporting excellent performance, and is also exploring satellite solutions such as Starlink to eliminate coverage gaps. Improving onboard internet access is one of the most frequent requests from passengers, according to the company.

From a business perspective, the new rolling stock is designed to increase service frequency, optimise the use of existing infrastructure and support revenue growth. Trenitalia aims to improve energy efficiency, raise load factors and reduce operating costs per seat-kilometre, while the modernisation of regional and Intercity fleets is expected to improve reliability and punctuality and reduce the risks associated with ageing vehicles.

Overall, the investment programme is intended to consolidate Trenitalia’s position in the liberalised European rail market and strengthen rail as a central pillar of sustainable mobility in Italy and beyond.

Questions and uncertainties raised by railway observers

The announcement has triggered significant discussion among railway analysts and industry observers, who have highlighted several unresolved issues and ambiguities in the reporting.

Size and structure of the order

Rail analyst Jon Worth noted that Trenitalia already has around 50 ETR1000 trainsets from the first procurement tranche and questioned whether the new announcement represents an increase of the second tranche from 36 to around 72 units. 

He also asked whether the widely discussed batch of Frecciarossa trains intended for France and potentially the United Kingdom is included within the 74-unit figure. 

Observers have pointed out that trade press coverage has been inconsistent and sometimes contradictory, making it difficult to determine the precise scope of the order.

Cost per trainset and pricing realism

Several analysts, including Alon Levy, questioned the implied unit cost. If €2 billion covers 74 trainsets, this would suggest a price of roughly €27m per 200-metre high-speed train, which is unusually low by current European standards, where prices of €40–50 million per trainset are more typical. Some commentators suggested that the €2 billion figure might refer only to a follow-up tranche, with the overall programme cost being significantly higher.

Geographical deployment and international ambitions

Strisciuglio stated that the new trains would operate in seven countries outside Italy, without specifying which. 

Observers noted that France, the UK, Austria, Germany and Spain are obvious candidates, but Belgium and the Netherlands have also been mentioned as potential markets. 

However, analysts highlighted that Trenitalia has been relatively quiet about Benelux expansion plans in recent years, despite its ownership of Dutch operator Qbuzz, raising questions about the strategic priorities for northern Europe.

Allocation of rolling stock across markets

Speculation has emerged about how the new trains might be distributed. Some analysts suggested a hypothetical split between domestic Italian services, Germany and Austria via Netinera (FS’s German subsidiary), and France/UK operations. 

Others pointed out that it remains unclear how many new Frecciarossa sets will replace older ETR500 units and how many will represent net capacity growth.

Infrastructure constraints and strategic timing

Commentators also noted that international expansion plans, particularly in the Benelux corridor, may be constrained by infrastructure issues, such as the ongoing problems on the Dutch HSL-Zuid. This could explain the lack of concrete announcements regarding Paris–Amsterdam or London services.

Overall, observers agree that the announcement signals a major expansion drive but argue that the details remain opaque. Much of the speculation stems from a single speech and fragmented reporting, with analysts awaiting clearer confirmation on order size, pricing, deployment strategy and international market priorities.

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