In 2024, Google and consultancy giant Deloitte wrote the paper ‘NextGen Travellers and Destinations‘, studying the the before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Of course, the paper was written before 2025, which has proven to be a  year of turmoil the world hasn’t experienced in many decades. 

Tourism, a key driver of global economic and social growth, faced an unprecedented halt with the onset of COVID-19. However, the industry has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with recovery reaching 88% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Yet, this resurgence is uneven across regions. 

While Europe, North America and South America have surpassed their pre-pandemic figures, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region continues to struggle with stagnation. In 2023 at least. 2024 and a weak yen attracted millions to Japan. And 2025? Well, it all depends what some heads of state think, do and don’t do. 

This finding emerges from the study ‘NextGen Travellers and Destinations: Our Vision on the Tourism Industry Transformation‘ a collaborative report by Google and Deloitte. 

The research examines tourism trends from 1990 onwards and projects developments up to 2040, aiming to help travel operators and distributors anticipate future changes.

Travel is money

From 1975 to 2019, global international arrivals doubled approximately every 15 years, reaching nearly 1.5 billion travellers. Tourism has been a key contributor to national economies, offering numerous benefits:

• Economic expansion: between 2011 and 2019, tourism growth (c.5%) outpaced global economic growth (c.3%).
• Employment opportunities: from 2016 to 2019, the sector provided one in ten jobs worldwide. In 2019, women held 54% of these roles, minorities 21%, and young people 15%.
• Wider economic impact: between 2014 and 2019, one in five new jobs stemmed from tourism. The industry’s revenues fuel economic activity across multiple sectors, fostering job creation and wealth distribution.
• Infrastructure development: attracting foreign investment, tourism drives infrastructure improvements. Between 2015 and 2019, direct foreign investment in tourism had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, enhancing quality of life in many destinations.
• Cultural exchange and social cohesion: in 2019, approximately 1.5 billion people, or nearly 20% of the global population, travelled abroad. This continual rise in international travel fosters cultural exchange and offers mental health benefits by reducing stress and broadening perspectives.
• Sustainability efforts: Tourism accounts for 8% of global carbon emissions, contributing to noise pollution and overcrowding. Nevertheless, the industry is taking significant steps towards sustainability, with many companies committed to initiatives like the Net Zero Roadmap for 2050.

The evolution of travel: 1990–2023

The study highlights that European nations remain leading source markets. However, between 2010 and 2019, Africa and APAC experienced higher-than-average growth rates (8% and 6.8%, respectively, versus a 4.8% global average), surpassing Europe (3.8%). 

Over the past decade, APAC generated 215 million new outbound trips, with 43% of the global total. By 2019, China had become the world’s leading outbound market, joining Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia at the top.

The study categorises traveller origins into four segments: newcomers, amateurs, experienced, and super-experienced. The latter two groups, found primarily in ageing societies, have populations where over 50% are aged 45 or older.

Meanwhile, emerging markets like China and India (newcomers) and countries such as Russia, Japan, and Turkey (amateurs) have predominantly younger populations, with 60% under the age of 44. Although the study doesn’t mention it, Japan must be an exception here. 

Between 2010 and 2019, newcomers exhibited the highest growth in outbound travel (c.11% CAGR), fuelled by a 9% CAGR in middle-class expansion and an annual per capita income growth rate of 4.4%.

Going abroad over ‘staying in’

More experienced travellers tend to favour international trips over domestic ones. Long-haul journeys require longer planning periods, while short- and medium-haul trips increasingly favour alternative accommodations like rentals. For international travel, hotels remain dominant, accommodating around 80% of tourists.

The use of travel intermediaries remains high at 55%, though this percentage is declining among newcomers and amateurs as they gain experience. 

Online bookings are rising, and interest in distant destinations is growing. Amateur markets, particularly Turkey, register the highest per-trip spending, with Australia being a notable exception.

While Europe remains the most visited region, its growth rate (4.2%) between 2010 and 2019 lagged behind APAC (6.7%) and South America (5.2%). 

France, Spain, the United States, Italy and China have retained their positions as the top destinations, but APAC and the Middle East are climbing the ranks. Among the top ten searched destinations, seven are European cities, with short- to medium-haul flights being the most popular way to reach them.

The future of travel: 2040 Vision

We are undergoing an economic, social, and technological shift that will shape the future of tourism. Key influences include:

• Advancements in exponential technologies;
• The evolving traveller;
• Cultural and social movements;
• Business transformation;
• Climate change
• Economic, political, and geopolitical shifts.

While the future remains uncertain, predictive models offer valuable insights into upcoming trends. Indeed, anno 2025 the future is véry uncertain.

The study concludes that the growth of the middle class will remain a primary driver of outbound travel demand. 

Factoring in around 20 key variables, the report estimates that global trips will rise to 2.4 billion by 2040. 

Africa and the Americas are expected to see the highest annual growth rates (4–5% CAGR), with APAC capturing the most new outbound departures (312 million, 33% of the total). 

European markets will contribute 282 million new outbound trips (30%). However, growth will become more fragmented as North America and the Middle East expand their market shares.

The top five outbound markets, China, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Russia, will grow their collective share from 34% in 2019 to 42% in 2040. Interestingly, the study seemed to have anticipated the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation. 

Meanwhile, Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Mexico are set to enter the top 15 outbound markets, propelled by their rising middle classes. 

Saudi Arabia is an interesting case study. The kingdom is investing massively in its (entertainment) infrastructure. Think of Qiddiya City, the ‘First City Built for Play’. 

Qiddiya City will be the home of Qiddiya Speed Park, a future Formula 1 Grade 1 circuit. Also I know gay people having been to or considering travelling to Saudi Arabia. Yes, one of the institutionally most homophobic countries in the world. 

Source parkets

Beyond these, European nations, APAC countries, and the United Arab Emirates are emerging as significant source markets.

As for inbound travel, Europe is set to maintain its dominance, welcoming 362 million additional tourists by 2040 (38% of the total growth). APAC will follow closely with 278 million (30%). The Middle East and Africa are expected to see the fastest growth (3.5–5% CAGR).

Top 5 players

By 2040, the five most-visited destinations, Spain, France, the United States, China, and Mexico, will collectively see their market share decline from 30% in 2019 to 20%, as other regions rise. 

Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and the UAE are poised to enter the top 15. Below these, European and APAC destinations will continue their upward trajectory.

Four clusters

Looking ahead, 45% of global travellers are expected to visit four key destination clusters: the Mediterranean Sea, Southeast Asia, the Novel Middle East, and the Caribbean. 

As tourism evolves, adaptability and forward-thinking strategies will be essential for destinations and operators aiming to thrive in this ever-changing landscape.

But to reiterate, first let’s live through the the Trump presidency and its consequences.

Some tourism statistics

• France, Spain, USA, China and Italy most visited countries in the world, Belgium 41st.
• France welcomed 100 million international visitors in 2024.
• Turkey welcomed 62 million international tourists who together spent $61 billion in 2024.
• SPAIN | 94 million international visitors and €108.7 billion tourism income in 2024.
• UN WORLD TOURISM BAROMETER | International tourism recovers pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
• Outside the EU, Europeans mostly travel to Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom.
• Intra-European travel mostly for fun and / or family.
• Europeans visit other European countries over 7 nights on average.