Summer break in politics? The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Federal Republic of Germany signed a ‘Joint declaration of intent between DfT and Federal Republic of Germany: direct international rail connection‘ for a direct London to Berlin train. In the mean time, Virgin Trains‘ Richard Branson announced a contract with Alstom for Avelia Stream train sets.

The United Kingdom and Germany have taken a significant step forward in international rail connectivity, formalising their intention to establish a direct passenger train service between London and Berlin. 

British Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander (Labour) and German Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder (CDU) recently signed a Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) in Hamburg. While this agreement builds upon commitments made in the July Kensington Treaty, it remains a framework for future collaboration rather than a binding roadmap.

The JDI outlines mutual ambitions to improve rail links between the two nations, citing economic, social, and cultural ties. It defines six key areas where cooperation will be pursued: sharing policy and market insights; refining border and security protocols; aligning technical and safety regulations—particularly regarding the Channel Tunnel; collaborating with infrastructure managers to assess capacity; and engaging with rail operators to explore viable commercial arrangements.

Implementation will occur through a bilateral working group that alternates leadership between the UK Department for Transport and Germany’s Federal Ministry of Transport. 

Cooperation will include expert exchanges, joint workshops, and regular coordination meetings. Notably, the agreement emphasises that no additional funding is designated for the endeavour; costs must be absorbed by existing national budgets. Third-party entities—both public and private—may be invited to contribute, provided they can add clear value to the project.

The JDI is not legally-binding and includes clauses on intellectual property, confidentiality, dispute resolution, and withdrawal rights. It remains in effect for five years, subject to review or extension, and allows either party to exit with six months’ notice.

While enthusiasm is palpable—Ministers Alexander and Schnieder both highlighted the move’s potential to offer a sustainable alternative to air travel, enriching tourism, business, and cultural ties—the agreement does not yet guarantee trains will run between London and Berlin. 

Significant technical, regulatory, and operational challenges remain. These include complying with Channel Tunnel safety standards, resolving immigration and customs arrangements post-Brexit, securing compatible rolling stock approvals, and addressing capacity constraints at London St Pancras, which currently handles limited international traffic.

Eurostar’s current plans to launch direct services to Frankfurt and Geneva in the early 2030s demonstrate momentum in broader European rail integration. Operators and infrastructure managers, including Getlink, are continuing to facilitate new open-access routes, creating momentum for future expansions. However, translating this political will into an operational London–Berlin service—potentially within a decade—will require careful technical planning, regulatory cooperation, and significant industry engagement.

In sum, yesterday’s signing marks an important milestone in transnational rail cooperation, yet underscores how ambition must still navigate a complex landscape of legal, technical, and operational hurdles before direct London–Berlin trains become a reality.

Virgin Trains in bed with Alstom? 

Independent railway commentator Jon Worth has cautioned against reading too much into reports that Virgin Trains is poised to order 12 high-speed trains from Alstom for Channel Tunnel services. Speaking after stories appeared in The Times, a Richard Branson column, and Rail Magazine, Worth said the announcement should be seen in the context of a competitive bid to win maintenance capacity at the Temple Mills depot in east London.

“Virgin is one of three operators – alongside Evolyn with Trenitalia and Gemini – seeking to rival Eurostar on long-distance high-speed routes through the Channel Tunnel”, Worth explained. 

“The Office for Rail and Road is due to decide this autumn who, if anyone, gets access to Temple Mills. If Virgin wins that capacity, then this is the train order they plan to place. The so-called ‘binding agreement’ is conditional on that outcome.”

Worth noted that the choice of the single-deck Alstom Avelia Stream is unusual. Eurostar, he said, is expected to favour the double-deck Avelia Horizon, while Evolyn / Trenitalia and Gemini are likely to look to Hitachi or Siemens models, which have shorter order books and proven track records.

The Stream design Virgin favours is derived from the non-tilting Pendolino platform, with existing versions operating at 250 km/h in Poland and Italy. A 300 km/h model – required for French high-speed lines – is planned, but not yet approved for operation in France, and will need to be compatible with the legacy TVM430 signalling system. 

“Choosing Stream is a risk”, Worth warned, pointing to uncertainty over when the faster version will be ready.

The development also raises questions for Eurostar, which has yet to confirm a new train order despite longstanding rumours. Worth suggested Virgin’s decision to avoid the Horizon model might indicate concerns over possible delivery delays with the double-deck design, which is already committed to SNCF, Proxima and ONCF orders.

Fleet size is another potential limitation. The 200-metre Stream units would need to run in pairs to match the capacity of Eurostar’s 400-metre e320 sets, meaning Virgin’s planned 12-train fleet would be equivalent to just six Eurostar trains. 

“That’s not enough to run a broad network”, Worth said, “though it could allow all maintenance to be concentrated in London without facilities in France or Belgium.”

Virgin has indicated it intends to serve Paris, Brussels and Amsterdam, with later expansion, but has made no mention of intermediate stops such as Ebbsfleet or Ashford. 

Worth said this was “peculiar” given the Stream’s fast boarding and strong acceleration, which would make such stops more viable than with double-deck stock.

“This is as much about positioning for depot access as it is about trains,” Worth concluded. “Until the Temple Mills decision is made, nothing here is certain.”

2030

Asked by BlueSky user Dermot O’Riordan if Worth reckons there will be competition in Channel Tunnel, and if so, in what rough timescale, Jon Worth answered “yes, y 2030. With one competitor against Eurostar. Evolyn backed by Trenitalia in pole position to be that competitor”.

Danny agrees: “I see Trenitalia as having the best chance. Their Frecciarossa trains already run in Italy, France and Spain. They have the most international experience, and in their home market they offer a good, reliable product – unlike Deutsche Bahn, which still cannot get its trains to run on time at home.”

UPDATE | 15.08.2025

Jon Worth, having reviewed Virgin’s additional submission to the Office of Rail and Road, concluded that the planned fleet would consist of 200-metre trains.

Based on his calculations, operating 13 services a day to Paris and four to Brussels – three of which would continue to Amsterdam – would require at least eight trains to maintain the service.

Two further units would be used in double formation, while the remaining two would serve as reserves. This would translate into five London–Paris return journeys each day operated with 400-metre trains, eight London–Paris returns with 200-metre trains, and all Brussels and Amsterdam services also using the shorter 200-metre configuration.

Channel Tunnel updates

• 2025 | The Channel Tunnel prepares for more trains, more competition and new destinations.
• United Kingdom and Germany are aiming for a direct London – Berlin train link.
• Eurostar and St. Pancras Highspeed back major station expansion to double capacity amid growing international demand.
• EUROSTAR | London – Frankfurt, London – Geneva and Amsterdam – Antwerp – Brussels – Geneva from 2030?.
• Alstom wants its double-decker trains to ride through Channel Tunnel.
• CHANNEL TUNNEL | Uber Trains-branded Gemini Trains plan London-Brussels and London-Paris route via Stratford.
• London to Switzerland direct train moves a little closer with new bilateral agreement.
• Eurostar calls for UK national strategy and investment to shape future of Channel Tunnel Rail and promises 50 new trains.
• Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane (FS) plan to launch a new high-speed link between London and Paris.
• London St. Pancras Highspeed pledges financial support for cross-Channel rail services.
• Competition for Eurostar? Temple Mills International Depot has space for competitor’s trains.
• London St Pancras Highspeed and Getlink aspire to to triple train services to France, Belgium and the Netherlands and add services to Germany and Switzerland.
• Heuro wants to operate high speeds trains between Amsterdam, Antwerp, Brussels, Paris and London from 2028.

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