CLIMATE CHANGE & TRAVEL | Is Belgium ready to be the Spain and Italy of the future?

In August 2023, several media reported Belgium is a hotspot for summer holidaying to watch for the future. Travel destinations around the Mediterranean Sea such as Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey and Morocco are just experiencing too many exaggerated heat waves.

There’s TUI CEO Sebastian Ebel who singled out Belgium, the Netherlands and Scandinavia as future popular destinations for summer holiday’s. British media such as The Times and The Daily Star reported on this as well. In July, TUI Belgium singled out Denmark as a destination gaining popularity with Belgians.

Visit Brussels says to have welcomed more tourists from Spain (+9%) and Italy (+18%) in July compared to 2022.

“This is probably mainly due to a campaign we ran in the spring that focused specifically on Spain and Italy. The changing climate is something that we have to take into account in the future, but we do not yet see any evidence that the increase has anything to do with it”, spokesperson Jeroen Roppe says in Gazet van Antwerpen.

Global warming and summer holidays

On 28 July 2023, the European Commission published a report on climate change and tourism.

Southern coastal regions are expected to lose tourists during the summer, particularly under 3°C and 4°C warming scenarios, while northern European coastal regions will see increased tourism demand, according to a new Joint Research Centre (JRC) study. Across the continent, tourist interest will fall in July and grow in April. With seasonal shift of demand across the continent, tourism will still grow, according to the projections.

The study ‘Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand‘ assesses changes in tourism demand under four climate futures, the Paris Agreement targets (1.5°C and 2°C) and two higher warming levels (3°C and 4°C).

According to the projections, the overall impact on European tourism demand is expected to be positive, with a projected rise of 1.58% for the highest warming scenario (4°C), but the aggregated results hide a high diversity across regions. There’s a clear north-south pattern, with tourism demand gains in central and northern Europe and lower demand in the south.

An important sector

As the most visited region in the world, accounting for 51% of all international arrivals (743 million tourists in 2019), Europe relies heavily on tourism as a major economic driver, directly generating 5% of EU GDP. Adding the contribution of ancillary sectors, tourism directly and indirectly contributes more than 10% of EU GDP. However, as temperatures rise and weather patterns become more unpredictable, action to achieve tourism sustainability is needed.

In a 1.5°C warming climate, the majority (80%) of the European regions are projected to be affected by climate change only in a rather small proportion, the flow of tourists visiting those regions fluctuating between -1% and +1%. The results are rather similar for the 2°C warming scenario.

For Belgium, the number of tourists would increase between 0.8% (with a warming of 2°C) and 2.9% (warming of 4°C). An increase of between 1.3% and 4.3% percent is predicted for the Netherlands.

Under the highest emission scenario, the most significant effect of climate change on tourism demand is projected for coastal regions, e.g., a 9.12% decline for the Greek Ionian Islands and a 15.93% increase for West Wales (United Kingdom).

Additionally, the largest losses – more than 5% – are projected across Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal regions, while the highest gains – above 5% – are distributed across Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Seasonal shifts

Seasonality patterns are expected to undergo substantial changes, with varying impacts across regions. Northern European coastal regions are expected to see more than a 5% increase in demand during summer and early autumn months. Conversely, southern coastal regions are projected to lose nearly 10% of summer tourists compared to the present, particularly in warmer climate scenarios (3°C and 4°C).

In these regions, the decline in summer demand is partially offset by higher tourist visits in spring, autumn, and winter. In aggregated terms, the month of April is expected to see the highest increase in tourist flows reaching a +8.89% compared to the present in a 4°C scenario.

The largest decline in European tourism demand is projected for July, ranging from -0.06% in the 1.5°C scenario to -5.72% under the warmest climate scenario.

Theory v reality

During the COVID-19 pandemic Belgium’s go-to tourism expert Jan van der Borg (KU Leuven) predicted Big Shifts in travel patterns. People would travel closer to home and more sustainably. Less flying, more train-ing.

But he and TUI Belgium spokesperson Piet Demeyere are (now) more nuanced.

“The expectation that we would spend more holidays in our own country, would opt for more active holidays and would rather go to the countryside than to cities did not come true. All those things evaporated quickly once the pandemic ended. The remainder that has permanently made the switch to that way of traveling is very small”, Jan van der Borg admits in De Morgen.

“Belgians still mainly travel in July and August, during construction leave. And then he especially wants to go to a destination with lots of sun and no rain. You still have the best chance of that in the south”, Demeyere says in De Standaard.

“The time at which people plan city trips to destinations such as Rome or Barcelona is clearly changing. It shifts from summer to Easter holidays and the months of May, September and October when it is more pleasant to walk around the city. You also see northern destinations becoming popular. Until recently, Denmark was not in the offer, but is now doing very well. The Canary Islands, which have less hot summers due to their location in the ocean, also do well during the big holidays.

Can Belgium handle this?

Jan van der Borg is adamant Belgium can handle more tourism. He sees some tourism offices doing a great job at handling (over)tourism. He names Florence (Firenze) which banning short-term rentals (aka Airbnb), Cinque Terre near Genoa, but also Flanders, the Netherlands and Scotland.

He says in Bruges is handling tourism great.

But we are sceptical. In December 2021 we posted ‘The Major Flaws of domestic tourism in Belgium‘. That blogpost was inspired by COVID-19 influenced travel. But the challenges remain.

On paper, Belgium has enough hotel beds. Art and history destinations such as the so-called culture cities are already on the radar of meerwaardezoekers, the ‘added value seekers’, a slightly pedantic Flemish word to describe a more intellectual, cultured, learned person.

But to attract the mass tourist, looking for relax times and ‘doing nothing’? We still lack that infrastructure. The massas must not only sleep, they also want things to do.

And even with a decent public transport in Belgium, some great accommodation is still hard to reach.

So?

Let’s wait and see. We’re not banking on Belgium becoming a new Spain. We already had that episode in our history.

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CLIMATE CHANGE & TRAVEL | Is Belgium ready to be the Spain and Italy of the future?

Global warming and summer holidays

An important sector

Seasonal shifts

Theory v reality

Can Belgium handle this?

So?

Excursions in Belgium and the Netherlands published since 2022

On tourism

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Global warming and summer holidays

An important sector

Seasonal shifts

Theory v reality

Can Belgium handle this?

So?

Excursions in Belgium and the Netherlands published since 2022

On tourism

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27 Comments Add yours

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